Handicapper Chic
The official NFL schedule has been released along with the season win totals for each team. One of the most beneficial ways in doing research before betting on these team win totals is by looking into their strength of schedule for the year.
Starting with the teams that have the toughest strengths of schedule, the Philadelphia Eagles lead the way with the strongest schedule and are followed by the Miami Dolphins with the second toughest schedule. With these teams having tough opponents next season, it should be swaying you to take the under on their win totals.
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The Eagles have one of the highest win totals of any team in the league at 10.5 and they have what seems to be a monstrous schedule with their opponents combining for a 161-123-4 record last year.
While the Eagles are coming off of a 14-win season last year and went over their 10-win total, they haven’t usually done well against double-digit win totals. Their last six seasons that they went in with a win total over 10, they went 6-0 with the under.
AFC team’s win total projection for 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs:
- Win Total: over11.5 (-115)
- Make Playoffs: -400
- Win Division: -150
- Win Conference: +350
- Win Super Bowl: +600
Moving on to Miami, they’re looking at a 9.5 win total which is their highest set win total since the 2004 season. Backing the under, all of Miami’s opponents this season combined for a 158-127-2 record last season.
Miami is another team that has struggled when facing a 9 win total from sportsbooks. They’ve faced five win totals of 9 or higher since 2004 and have gone 0-3-2 with the over.
As for the teams with the easiest schedules, both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints sit at the top of that list and something that they have in common that strengthens both of them going over their win total even more is that they are both in a declining NFC South division. Both of them are also sitting with plus money odds on the over as well.
Looking at the Atlanta Falcons, they are set at an 8.5 win total with 105 odds on the over and their opponents combining for a 119-167-3 record last year.
The Falcons made some heavy noise in the offseason bringing in 5 starting caliber players on defense including Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates and also drafted Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick.
The Saints are looking at a 9.5 total but have 100 odds of going over even though their opponents went just 122-164-3 last year. The Saints are welcoming in a new QB in Derek Carr and if they can remain healthy, they could be one of the most lethal offenses in the league.
Miami Dolphins NFL Schedule (Via DraftKings)
Key Games:
• @ Patriots (SNF)
• @ Eagles (SNF)
• @ Chiefs (Germany)
• @ Jets (Black Friday)
• vs Titans (MNF)#FinsUp | @MiamiDolphins pic.twitter.com/ZOv1mzH3DG— Miami Sports (@SportsInMiami) May 11, 2023
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| Title: Using Strength Of Schedule Rankings To Bet On NFL Team Win Totals
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: May 04, 2023
